WTA Wuhan 2024 Final: Sabalenka vs Zheng Preview

By Shane Lambert

The final for the 2024 Wuhan Open is set. Top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka will face Qinwen Zheng in the championship. Sabalenka advanced to the final with a 1-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Coco Gauff. Shortly after that result, Zheng defeated compatriot Xinyu Wang 6-3, 6-4. The final will thus feature the No. 1 seed in the tournament pitted against China's top-ranked player.

Sabalenka vs Zheng Preview: Unfavorable for Zheng

Zheng is 0-3 against Sabalenka in their head-to-head history. Furthermore, she is 0-6 on sets played and has not survived to a 5-7 or 6-7 result in any particular set. This truly is an unfavorable match-up for the Chinese star.

Zheng and Sabalenka do have two matches this season, both of which were played on a hard-court surface. Sabalenka eliminated Zheng in the 2024 US Open quarterfinals. The Belarussian also claimed the Australian Open final over Zheng to start the 2024 Grand Slam season.

Their other match dates back a little over a year. Sabalenka eliminated Zheng from the 2023 US Open quarterfinals.

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Sabalenka to Win in Wuhan Again?

Other points of view could be invoked to argue in favor of predicting a Sabalenka victory in the women's final. The Belarussian has a history of success at the venue, having won the tournament in 2018 and 2019. She is 16-0 in matches played at the Wuhan venue. 

That Zheng will play in front of a partisan Chinese crowd could help her. However, she did lose in the WTA Elite Trophy final at about this time last season to Beatriz Haddad Maia. That tournament was played in Zhuhai, China.

World No. 1 Ranking Not Directly at Stake for Sabalenka

The World No. 1 ranking is not at stake in the match, at least not for Monday's rankings. Sabalenka entered the event as the World No. 2 and she is not far behind Iga Swiatek. If Sabalenka wins the final, then she will be just slightly behind Swiatek. In that case, Swiatek, who is currently idle on tour, would have 9,785 ranking points. Sabalenka would have 9,716 ranking points. If Sabalenka loses to Zheng, the former would have 9,366 ranking points. While the final in Wuhan cannot directly change the World No. 1 ranking, if Sabalenka wins then matters will be very close and matters look like they will change before month's end.

Zheng will be ranked 7th on Monday in any case. However, it would be a significant career highlight for her to win the Wuhan title. In that case, she would be closer to getting into the Top 5, somewhere she has not yet been. That said, this is a very tough matchup for Zheng. She is essentially facing her own personal "end boss" in the Wuhan final as Sabalenka has dominated Zheng when they've played.

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